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What this means. A wallet put $99.9k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 22% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+12.9 pts over 25 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$99.9k
BUY Yes @ 22¢ · 456,222 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet ndb1 took Yes (buy) for $99.9k at an average 22¢. At that price the market implied a 22% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $99.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 22¢ means
22%chance the market gave
+357American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 22¢
- Implied odds
- 21.9%
- As American odds
- +357 no vig
- Size
- $99.9k
- Placed
- Jul 14, 11:39 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ndb1
- Tx
- 0x1b2209d6…
This wallet's graded record
16/25+12.9 pts
expected 12.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +78 ptsYes price · entry 22¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $43.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $26.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $100.3k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $64.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |