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What this means. A wallet put $29.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 87% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$29.6k
BUY No @ 87¢ · 34,030 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet 0x4f9e…9aa0 took No (buy) for $29.6k at an average 87¢. At that price the market implied a 87% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $29.6k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 87¢ means
87%chance the market gave
−668American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 87¢
- Implied odds
- 87.0%
- Size
- $29.6k
- Placed
- Jun 03, 17:53 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x4f9e…9aa0
- Tx
- 0x04bd419f…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-87.0 pts
expected 1.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -87 ptsNo price · entry 87¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $134.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |