← Wallets
−$0No · avg 92.9¢ → 92.5¢ · $80+$2No · avg 70¢ → 72¢ · $66 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$6Yes · avg 84¢ → 94.5¢ · $49 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$8Yes · avg 64¢ → 84¢ · $36−$0Yes · avg 91.8¢ → 91.5¢ · $34−$2No · avg 79¢ → 74¢ · $31+$2Yes · avg 86¢ → 91.5¢ · $30−$1No · avg 84¢ → 82¢ · $27
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -87.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-87.0 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$141.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$92.7k
Last 30 days +$35 · $444.0k volume · 4,375 trades · since Dec 31, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$8,629
Open P&L · 295 positions
−$3,664
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
297d
1046 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | -87.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 87¢ | $42.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ | $34.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 87¢ | $29.6k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $22.8k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $13.3k | called |
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