Thursday, December 11, 2025

36 whale trades totalling $2.12M from 29 wallets. Biggest: $498.7k sell No on “Xi Jinping out in 2025?” at 99.4¢. 3 of 3 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 2.8 expected (+7.2 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED SELL No @ 99.4¢	$498.7k 3.0× usual	1%	0x18ba…82ab	316d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$322.8k 6.4× usual	99%	elmcap2	316d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED SELL No @ 99.3¢	$195.0k	1%	0x18ba…82ab	316d ago	excluded
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$183.1k	99%	poorsob	316d ago	excluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$179.4k 3.0× usual	99%	0x1fad…b5b2	316d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED SELL No @ 99.3¢	$111.0k	1%	0x18ba…82ab	316d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 80¢	$38.0k	20%	HH168	316d ago	missed	Trade this
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$36.0k	100%	madril	316d ago	excluded
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$36.0k	100%	madril	316d ago	excluded
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$36.0k	0%	madril	316d ago	excluded
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$35.9k	0%	madril	316d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢	$32.4k	81%	TwoEyes	316d ago	called	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 19¢	$32.1k	19%	0x7e50…2a28	316d ago	missed	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 82¢	$29.5k	82%	sorcerer.01	316d ago	called	Trade this
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$29.4k	1%	0x3b91…e572	317d ago	excluded

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$498.7k

MED 0x18ba…82ab · 316d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$322.8k

LOW elmcap2 · 316d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

SELL No @ 99.3¢$195.0k

MED 0x18ba…82ab · 316d ago

Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$183.1k

LOW poorsob · 316d ago

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.1¢$179.4k

LOW 0x1fad…b5b2 · 316d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

SELL No @ 99.3¢$111.0k

MED 0x18ba…82ab · 316d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 80¢$38.0k

MED HH168 · 316d ago

Trade this

Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$36.0k

LOW madril · 316d ago

Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$36.0k

LOW madril · 316d ago

Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$36.0k

LOW madril · 316d ago

Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$35.9k

LOW madril · 316d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 81¢$32.4k

LOW TwoEyes · 316d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?missed

BUY Yes @ 19¢$32.1k

MED 0x7e50…2a28 · 316d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 82¢$29.5k

MED sorcerer.01 · 316d ago

Trade this

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$29.4k

LOW 0x3b91…e572 · 317d ago

Most traded markets

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

$1.25M · 13 flags

Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?

$234.3k · 4 flags

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$179.4k · 1 flags

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$168.6k · 7 flags

Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?

$72.0k · 2 flags

Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

$71.9k · 2 flags