← Wallets
+$2,301Yes · avg 60¢ → 68¢ · $19.0k+$410Yes · avg 71¢ → 74¢ · $9,620+$120Yes · avg 69¢ → 70¢ · $7,050+$130Yes · avg 87¢ → 93.5¢ · $1,870 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$2Yes · avg 69¢ → 69¢ · $325+$14Yes · avg 25¢ → 26¢ · $324−$2Yes · avg 25¢ → 24¢ · $122
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.4 wins, so it did +14.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+14.6 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.4
Flagged volume
$433.8k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4,741
Last 30 days +$2,670 · $3.02M volume · 4,087 trades · since Oct 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$37.1k
Open P&L · 50 positions
−$36.3k
Closed-position win rate
68%
73 closed
Wallet age · markets
736d
121 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 4 | 4 | 3.4 | +14.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.5¢ | $11.1k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $17.8k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ | $23.5k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $14.8k | called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $31.2k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $56.1k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ | $29.5k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ | $35.5k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98¢ | $27.6k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ | $34.0k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ | $21.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $14.0k | called |
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