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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did -9.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-9.7 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$812.8k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$36k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? at 94¢) and the edge is -12.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 20% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 27% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 95% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$322.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $16.06M volume · 13,870 trades · since Jul 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 456 closed
+$326.9k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
70%
456 closed
Wallet age · markets
476d
406 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 4 | 2 | 2.3 | -7.6 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.1 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -33.7 pts |
History
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