yabanci

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -70.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs+$3,745Vitality · avg 71¢ → 74¢ · $79.7k Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs+$9,666Astralis · avg 52¢ → 60¢ · $78.7k Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs+$189BetBoom Team · avg 37¢ → 38¢ · $14.2k Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs LEGION (+1.5)+$268Team Spirit · avg 68¢ → 70¢ · $9,380 Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)−$72BetBoom Team · avg 64¢ → 64¢ · $9,168 Capitals vs. Predators−$177Capitals · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $5,960

Price-adjusted edge

-70.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.7

Flagged volume

$165.1k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$2,945

Last 30 days −$3,817 · $6.50M volume · 1,819 trades · since Oct 14, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$180.3k

Open P&L · 10 positions

−$176.4k

Closed-position win rate

55%

103 closed

Wallet age · markets

15d

112 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.7	-70.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs	LOW BUY FUT Esports @ 70¢	$74.9k 2.2× usual	70%	7h ago	Missed
Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 199.5	LOW BUY Under @ 50¢	$30.5k	50%	8h ago	Excluded
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)	LOW BUY Thunder @ 49¢	$22.1k	49%	10h ago	Excluded
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5	LOW BUY Under @ 45¢	$37.5k	45%	16h ago	Excluded

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest PlayoffsMissed

BUY FUT Esports @ 70¢$74.9k

LOW yabanci · 7h ago

Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 199.5Excluded

BUY Under @ 50¢$30.5k

LOW yabanci · 8h ago

Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Excluded

BUY Thunder @ 49¢$22.1k

LOW yabanci · 10h ago

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Excluded

BUY Under @ 45¢$37.5k

LOW yabanci · 16h ago

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