rebotsliaf

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -41.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$7,581Yes · avg 45¢ → 68¢ · $23.2k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?+$13.7kNo · avg 32¢ → 93.5¢ · $20.8k Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?+$708No · avg 46¢ → 48¢ · $20.5k Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+$1,449No · avg 76¢ → 82¢ · $19.8k Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$10.3kYes · avg 35¢ → 76¢ · $19.1k Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$356No · avg 62¢ → 63¢ · $18.9k Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$1,253No · avg 66¢ → 74¢ · $11.6k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?+$1,611Yes · avg 18¢ → 24¢ · $7,311

Price-adjusted edge

-41.6 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.4

Flagged volume

$123.6k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$122.6k

Last 30 days +$42.7k · $23.77M volume · 31,771 trades · since Mar 24, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$893.0k

Open P&L · 263 positions

−$133.8k

Closed-position win rate

52%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

214d

655 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.4	-41.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 58¢	$13.0k	42%	96d ago	missed
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢	$15.4k	79%	104d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 11¢	$28.8k 2.0× usual	11%	116d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$11.1k	0%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$11.1k	100%	176d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$44.3k 3.1× usual	100%	177d ago	excluded

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL Yes @ 58¢$13.0k

LOW rebotsliaf · 96d ago

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 21¢$15.4k

LOW rebotsliaf · 104d ago

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 11¢$28.8k

MED rebotsliaf · 116d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$11.1k

LOW rebotsliaf · 129d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$11.1k

LOW rebotsliaf · 176d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$44.3k

LOW rebotsliaf · 177d ago

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