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adonpoli

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -7.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-7.2 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$247.0k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$28.6k
Last 30 days +$420 · $9.58M volume · 10,166 trades · since Jul 18, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$30.1k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$263
Closed-position win rate
72%
391 closed
Wallet age · markets
463d
340 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics100.2-20.6 pts
Other311.1-2.7 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $12.6k99% 90d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $19.9k99% 144d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $10.2k100% 180d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $12.3k0% 198d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $10.7k97% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $15.0k0% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.5k0% 203d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.5k0% 205d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $26.0k
2.1× usual
1% 206d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $26.0k
2.1× usual
100% 206d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 94.2¢ $10.1k94% 223d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $10.2k0% 237d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $12.0k98% 334d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 89¢ $20.4k11% 337d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 94¢ $13.1k6% 384d agomissed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢ $13.8k21% 414d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 92¢ $13.8k8% 427d agomissed

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