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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $18.0k on not No, at a price that gave it a 2% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded$18.0k
SELL No @ 98.1¢ · 18,343 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet ospan took No (sell) for $18.0k at an average 98.1¢. At that price the market implied a 2% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 98.1¢
- Implied odds
- 1.9%
- Size
- $18.0k
- Placed
- Apr 02, 04:28 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ospan
- Tx
- 0xffce1bb7…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-91.0 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +98 ptsNo price · entry 98.1¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $183.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |