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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -91.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-91.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$52.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$20.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $529.5k volume · 600 trades · since Apr 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3,751
Open P&L · 47 positions
−$22.9k
Closed-position win rate
62%
89 closed
Wallet age · markets
206d
129 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -91.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $17.5k | missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $16.9k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1c0773…