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What this means. A wallet put $16.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 48% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.5k
BUY No @ 48¢ · 34,303 shares
Size ≥ $10kFresh walletSports
What happened
Wallet waterwaterflow took No (buy) for $16.5k at an average 48¢. At that price the market implied a 48% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $16.5k+0
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 48¢ means
48%chance the market gave
+108American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 48¢
- Implied odds
- 48.0%
- As American odds
- +108 no vig
- Size
- $16.5k
- Placed
- Jun 14, 17:49 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 14, 22:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- waterwaterflow
- Tx
- 0xf39ce80b…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-48.0 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -48 ptsNo price · entry 48¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $264.4k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $102.0k 3.6× usual |
excluded |