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What this means. A wallet put $296.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 52% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$296.2k
SELL No @ 48¢ · 613,903 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $250k2 fills in 1h5.8× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet gmpm2 took No (sell) for $296.2k at an average 48¢. At that price the market implied a 52% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $296.2k+3
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 48¢
- Implied odds
- 51.7%
- As American odds
- −107 no vig
- Size
- $296.2k
- Placed
- Jul 11, 15:23 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 11, 17:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- gmpm2
- Tx
- 0xe959b663…
This wallet's graded record
9/18-6.9 pts
expected 10.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -52 ptsNo price · entry 48¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $107.8k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | MED SELL No @ 78¢ | $43.9k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $17.4k | excluded |