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What this means. A wallet put $12.1k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 28% chance. It lost. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.1k
BUY Yes @ 28¢ · 43,350 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took Yes (buy) for $12.1k at an average 28¢. At that price the market implied a 28% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $12.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 28¢ means
28%chance the market gave
+257American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 28¢
- Implied odds
- 28.0%
- Size
- $12.1k
- Placed
- May 10, 14:27 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0xe8c59ea8…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $100.1k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.6k | excluded |