← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $16.5k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 42% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.5k
SELL Yes @ 58¢ · 28,435 shares
Size ≥ $10kLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet FullPicks1 took Yes (sell) for $16.5k at an average 58¢. At that price the market implied a 42% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $16.5k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 58¢
- Implied odds
- 42.0%
- As American odds
- +138 no vig
- Size
- $16.5k
- Placed
- May 15, 16:02 EDT
- Market close
- May 15, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- FullPicks1
- Tx
- 0xe7c4d3e7…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+59.3 pts
expected 0.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -42 ptsYes price · entry 58¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $35.5k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 36¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW BUY No @ 66¢ | $10.9k | missed |