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+$76Yes · avg 43¢ → 44¢ · $6,575−$34Yes · avg 48¢ → 48¢ · $3,420
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -10.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-10.1 pts
Called / graded
3/7
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$609.5k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$26k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? at 56¢) and the edge is -19.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 51% · n=6
60–80¢
0% vs 62% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$54.8k
Last 30 days +$11.0k · $7.57M volume · 7,585 trades · since Mar 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$727
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$54.3k
Closed-position win rate
44%
151 closed
Wallet age · markets
228d
159 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 2 | 2.6 | -12.8 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -3.5 pts |
History
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