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What this means. A wallet put $39.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$39.5k
BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ · 39,973 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)Politics
What happened
Wallet SAPolitcsSeer took Yes (buy) for $39.5k at an average 98.9¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $39.5k+1
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−8887American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 98.9¢
- Implied odds
- 98.9%
- Size
- $39.5k
- Placed
- Apr 16, 13:51 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 11, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- SAPolitcsSeer
- Tx
- 0xde27d90f…
This wallet's graded record
7/8+5.2 pts
expected 6.6 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $152.6k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $34.4k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $50.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $32.9k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $62.7k | excluded |