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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $179.3k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded$179.3k
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ · 180,000 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)Proven wallet4.8× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took Yes (sell) for $179.3k at an average 99.6¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $179.3k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.6¢
- Implied odds
- 0.4%
- Size
- $179.3k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 21:21 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0xd59aff6e…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $183.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |