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What this means. A wallet put $10.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 65% chance. It won. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.6k
BUY No @ 65¢ · 16,342 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet Casdifer took No (buy) for $10.6k at an average 65¢. At that price the market implied a 65% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.6k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 65¢ means
65%chance the market gave
−186American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 65¢
- Implied odds
- 65.0%
- Size
- $10.6k
- Placed
- Apr 01, 21:39 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 11, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Casdifer
- Tx
- 0xd52c4331…
This wallet's graded record
3/5+4.4 pts
expected 2.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +35 ptsNo price · entry 65¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $14.0k | excluded |