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What this means. A wallet put $18.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 76% chance. It won. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.2k
BUY No @ 76¢ · 23,986 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $18.2k at an average 76¢. At that price the market implied a 76% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.2k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 76¢ means
76%chance the market gave
−317American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 76¢
- Implied odds
- 76.0%
- Size
- $18.2k
- Placed
- Jan 24, 17:40 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0xc285eb0c…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +24 ptsNo price · entry 76¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $98.4k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |