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What this means. A wallet put $60.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 26% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$60.0k
BUY No @ 26¢ · 230,975 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hOther
What happened
Wallet IronyOfLife took No (buy) for $60.0k at an average 26¢. At that price the market implied a 26% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $60.0k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 26¢ means
26%chance the market gave
+285American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 26¢
- Implied odds
- 26.0%
- Size
- $60.0k
- Placed
- Jun 14, 18:56 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- IronyOfLife
- Tx
- 0xbd342337…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-64.6 pts
expected 0.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -26 ptsNo price · entry 26¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $134.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |