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What this means. A wallet put $13.8k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 19% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-1.8 pts over 37 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$13.8k
BUY Yes @ 19¢ · 73,670 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet wan123 took Yes (buy) for $13.8k at an average 19¢. At that price the market implied a 19% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $13.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 19¢ means
19%chance the market gave
+435American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 19¢
- Implied odds
- 18.7%
- Size
- $13.8k
- Placed
- Apr 30, 13:31 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- wan123
- Tx
- 0xae10618c…
This wallet's graded record
12/37-1.8 pts
expected 12.7 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $100.1k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.6k | excluded |