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What this means. A wallet put $31.1k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$31.1k
SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ · 31,295 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Politics
What happened
Wallet DonaldinhoTrumpito took Yes (sell) for $31.1k at an average 99.5¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $31.1k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.5¢
- Implied odds
- 0.5%
- Size
- $31.1k
- Placed
- May 03, 14:03 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 11, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- DonaldinhoTrumpito
- Tx
- 0xaab67cd2…
This wallet's graded record
13/16+1.2 pts
expected 12.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $152.6k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $34.4k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $50.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $32.9k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $62.7k | excluded |