← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $40.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$40.0k
BUY No @ 99.4¢ · 40,231 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Proven wallet2.2× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $40.0k at an average 99.4¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $40.0k+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−16567American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.4¢
- Implied odds
- 99.4%
- Size
- $40.0k
- Placed
- Apr 26, 00:50 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x92fe68cf…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +1 ptsNo price · entry 99.4¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $55.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $147.0k 4.9× usual |
excluded |