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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $13.7k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 93% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-0.3 pts over 21 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded$13.7k
BUY Yes @ 92.8¢ · 14,768 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet betwick took Yes (buy) for $13.7k at an average 92.8¢. At that price the market implied a 93% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $13.7k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 93¢ means
93%chance the market gave
−1283American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 92.8¢
- Implied odds
- 92.8%
- Size
- $13.7k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 19:13 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- betwick
- Tx
- 0x7f09b5a3…
This wallet's graded record
12/21-0.3 pts
expected 12.1 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $183.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |