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What this means. A wallet put $23.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has a losing record: -17.8 pts vs the price over 20 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$23.2k
BUY No @ 98¢ · 23,634 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet aenews2 took No (buy) for $23.2k at an average 98¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $23.2k+0
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−4784American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 98¢
- Implied odds
- 98.0%
- Size
- $23.2k
- Placed
- Apr 13, 08:42 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 09, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- aenews2
- Tx
- 0x7bf1a515…
This wallet's graded record
12/20-17.8 pts
expected 15.6 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $218.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $79.9k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $64.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $119.1k 4.4× usual |
excluded |