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What this means. A wallet put $28.1k on No, at a price that gave it a 92% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$28.1k
BUY No @ 92¢ · 30,527 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $28.1k at an average 92¢. At that price the market implied a 92% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $28.1k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 92¢ means
92%chance the market gave
−1150American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 92¢
- Implied odds
- 92.0%
- Size
- $28.1k
- Placed
- Apr 01, 18:14 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x7a09e30b…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -92 ptsNo price · entry 92¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $183.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |