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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $20.8k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded$20.8k
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ · 20,931 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet KARMASUR took Yes (sell) for $20.8k at an average 99.6¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $20.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.6¢
- Implied odds
- 0.4%
- Size
- $20.8k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 22:56 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- KARMASUR
- Tx
- 0x762b0e8c…
This wallet's graded record
2/2+4.5 pts
expected 1.9 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $183.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |