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What this means. A wallet put $104.1k on not No, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$104.1k
SELL No @ 99.8¢ · 104,275 shares
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)2.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet 0xd054…7e38 took No (sell) for $104.1k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $104.1k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 0.2%
- Size
- $104.1k
- Placed
- Feb 25, 21:09 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0xd054…7e38
- Tx
- 0x65385acd…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-71.0 pts
expected 0.7 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $31.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $42.1k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $169.8k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $12.4k | excluded |