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0xd054…7e38

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -71.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-71.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$889.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$154.1k
Last 30 days +$332 · $3.86M volume · 7,159 trades · since Feb 15, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 479 closed
−$151.6k
Open P&L · 39 positions
−$2,897
Closed-position win rate
79%
479 closed
Wallet age · markets
251d
478 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.7-71.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $14.6k100% 237d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $64.0k94% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $21.2k92% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $17.4k71% 240d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY No @ 91¢ $63.7k91% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $104.1k
2.4× usual
0% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $34.5k99% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $27.2k94% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $43.3k0% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $49.8k83% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?MED BUY No @ 92¢ $33.0k92% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $62.8k99% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $93.3k
2.2× usual
98% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $36.8k98% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $105.8k
2.4× usual
99% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $78.5k98% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $39.4k98% 246d agoexcluded

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