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What this means. A wallet put $11.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 36% chance. It lost. This wallet has a losing record: -17.8 pts vs the price over 20 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.4k
BUY Yes @ 36¢ · 31,578 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet aenews2 took Yes (buy) for $11.4k at an average 36¢. At that price the market implied a 36% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.4k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 36¢ means
36%chance the market gave
+178American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 36¢
- Implied odds
- 36.0%
- Size
- $11.4k
- Placed
- Apr 02, 00:25 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 11, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- aenews2
- Tx
- 0x5d4dde67…
This wallet's graded record
12/20-17.8 pts
expected 15.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -36 ptsYes price · entry 36¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $14.0k | excluded |