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Polymarket · Politics · one bet
OpenResolves Nov 3
$16.0k
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
456ythgbvcadscvb sold No at 96.5¢. Their side is the other outcome, which the price gave a 4% chance. 16,571 shares, Oct 28, 12:48 EDT.
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What this means. A wallet put $16.0k on not No, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no graded bets yet. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
[01] Bet
What happened
Wallet 456ythgbvcadscvb sold No for $16.0k at an average 96.5¢. At that price the market implied 4% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It still counts toward the score.
[02] Flag
Why it was flagged
Low. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology
Size $16.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
[04] Price
Price since the bet
Price since this bet
Since entry -1.2 ptsNo price · entry 96.5¢ · now 97.7¢ · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Related news
Same names, last 7 daysCalifornia governor race polls: who will win the 2026 election?The Times · Google News · 2h agoCalifornia Governor Race 2026: Becerra vs. HiltonMultiState · Google News · 7h agoCalifornia gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton tells voters 'it's OK to vote Republican'; touts homelessness plan - ABC7 Los AngelesGoogle News · Google News · 11h agoAnthropic tells California governor courts should be able to block risky AI modelsSan Luis Obispo Tribune · Google News · 23h ago
Public RSS headlines that use a team, person, or institution also named in this market. We did not write them, and they are not a read on the odds. Sources and matching rules