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What this means. A wallet put $20.1k on Kamaru Usman, at a price that gave it a 31% chance. It lost. This wallet has a losing record: -29.7 pts vs the price over 24 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$20.1k
BUY Kamaru Usman @ 31¢ · 65,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Sports
What happened
Wallet sleepy-panda took Kamaru Usman (buy) for $20.1k at an average 31¢. At that price the market implied a 31% chance for that side. The market resolved Dricus Du Plessis, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $20.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 31¢ means
31%chance the market gave
+223American odds
$1.00paid per share if Kamaru Usman wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 31¢
- Implied odds
- 31.0%
- As American odds
- +223 no vig
- Size
- $20.1k
- Placed
- Jul 16, 00:08 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 18, 17:00 EDT
- Result
- Dricus Du Plessis
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- sleepy-panda
- Tx
- 0x52be639c…
This wallet's graded record
3/24-29.7 pts
expected 10.1 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -31 ptsKamaru Usman price · entry 31¢ · resolved Dricus Du Plessis
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Dricus Du Plessis @ 99.9¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Dricus Du Plessis @ 99.9¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Dricus Du Plessis @ 90¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Dricus Du Plessis @ 68¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Dricus Du Plessis @ 67¢ | $191.1k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Kamaru Usman @ 34¢ | $13.2k | excluded |