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What this means. A wallet put $22.1k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 19% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$22.1k
SELL Yes @ 81¢ · 27,244 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet Bettong took Yes (sell) for $22.1k at an average 81¢. At that price the market implied a 19% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $22.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 81¢
- Implied odds
- 19.0%
- Size
- $22.1k
- Placed
- Sep 20, 02:04 EDT
- Market close
- Sep 21, 08:43 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Bettong
- Tx
- 0x5103f014…
This wallet's graded record
2/3+1.3 pts
expected 2.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -19 ptsYes price · entry 81¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $149.8k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $10.8k | excluded |