← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $31.4k on not No, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$31.4k
SELL No @ 99.3¢ · 31,589 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took No (sell) for $31.4k at an average 99.3¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $31.4k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.3¢
- Implied odds
- 0.7%
- Size
- $31.4k
- Placed
- Jun 06, 20:06 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0x4e8f11bd…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -1 ptsNo price · entry 99.3¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $51.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $109.9k 4.4× usual |
excluded |