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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $13.3k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 13% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded$13.3k
SELL Yes @ 87¢ · 15,267 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet WarriorPooh took Yes (sell) for $13.3k at an average 87¢. At that price the market implied a 13% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $13.3k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 87¢
- Implied odds
- 12.9%
- Size
- $13.3k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 19:06 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- WarriorPooh
- Tx
- 0x3ddbff31…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+21.1 pts
expected 0.8 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $183.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |