WarriorPooh

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +21.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?+$261Yes · avg 24¢ → 40¢ · $649 Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2027?−$184Yes · avg 30¢ → 16¢ · $192 US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?+$3No · avg 10¢ → 10¢ · $55 Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?+$2No · avg 90¢ → 96.9¢ · $33 Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?−$61Yes · avg 15¢ → 4.1¢ · $23 Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?+$6No · avg 51¢ → 82¢ · $16 Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?−$2No · avg 36¢ → 31¢ · $9 Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?−$45Yes · avg 8.5¢ → 1.2¢ · $8

Price-adjusted edge

+21.1 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$79.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$170.9k

Last 30 days +$6,823 · $9.95M volume · 7,589 trades · since Dec 11, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$338.4k

Open P&L · 45 positions

−$9,886

Closed-position win rate

81%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

317d

695 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.8	+21.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢	$10.8k	79%	167d ago	called
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢	$10.2k	48%	192d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$13.3k	13%	200d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢	$23.9k 2.2× usual	66%	200d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢	$10.7k	11%	200d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 82¢	$10.6k	18%	239d ago	excluded

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called

SELL Yes @ 21¢$10.8k

LOW WarriorPooh · 167d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 48¢$10.2k

LOW WarriorPooh · 192d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

SELL Yes @ 87¢$13.3k

LOW WarriorPooh · 200d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 66¢$23.9k

LOW WarriorPooh · 200d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 11¢$10.7k

LOW WarriorPooh · 200d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 82¢$10.6k

LOW WarriorPooh · 239d ago

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