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What this means. A wallet put $18.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 27% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.0k
BUY Yes @ 27¢ · 66,071 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet geniusMC took Yes (buy) for $18.0k at an average 27¢. At that price the market implied a 27% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 27¢ means
27%chance the market gave
+268American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 27¢
- Implied odds
- 27.2%
- Size
- $18.0k
- Placed
- Jan 21, 14:20 EST
- Market close
- Jan 26, 01:20 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- geniusMC
- Tx
- 0x38e7b3de…
This wallet's graded record
3/4+12.7 pts
expected 2.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -27 ptsYes price · entry 27¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 68¢ | $33.1k | called |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 30¢ | $114.2k 2.9× usual |
called |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 29¢ | $45.8k | missed |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 73¢ | $16.3k | called |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 73¢ | $15.0k | called |