mantre

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -79.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?+$1,404No · avg 81¢ → 88¢ · $19.6k Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?−$1,084No · avg 45¢ → 34¢ · $3,635 Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?−$160Yes · avg 9¢ → 7.5¢ · $798 · 0 proven with, 1 against Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2026 AFC West?−$504Yes · avg 10¢ → 5.3¢ · $514 Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?+$153No · avg 43¢ → 74¢ · $373 France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?−$11Yes · avg 17¢ → 16¢ · $116 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?−$80Yes · avg 7.7¢ → 3.8¢ · $76 Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$6Yes · avg 1.1¢ → 1.2¢ · $52

Price-adjusted edge

-79.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$52.2k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$865

Last 30 days −$4,493 · $6.00M volume · 3,860 trades · since Sep 09, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$150.6k

Open P&L · 366 positions

−$145.2k

Closed-position win rate

77%

334 closed

Wallet age · markets

411d

658 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.8	-79.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz	LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 79¢	$16.5k	79%	46d ago	missed
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$20.6k	0%	271d ago	excluded
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 73¢	$15.0k	73%	274d ago	called

US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcarazmissed

BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 79¢$16.5k

LOW mantre · 46d ago

Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$20.6k

LOW mantre · 271d ago

Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?called

BUY No @ 73¢$15.0k

LOW mantre · 274d ago

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