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What this means. A wallet put $36.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 53% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$36.5k
BUY No @ 53¢ · 68,351 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet ImJustKen took No (buy) for $36.5k at an average 53¢. At that price the market implied a 53% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $36.5k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 53¢ means
53%chance the market gave
−114American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 53¢
- Implied odds
- 53.3%
- Size
- $36.5k
- Placed
- Jan 26, 03:02 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ImJustKen
- Tx
- 0x383caa40…
This wallet's graded record
6/12+1.4 pts
expected 5.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -53 ptsNo price · entry 53¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $222.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |