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What this means. A wallet put $15.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 19% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.0k
BUY Yes @ 19¢ · 80,085 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideOther
What happened
Wallet Fernandoinfante took Yes (buy) for $15.0k at an average 19¢. At that price the market implied a 19% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 19¢ means
19%chance the market gave
+434American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 19¢
- Implied odds
- 18.7%
- Size
- $15.0k
- Placed
- Apr 20, 23:41 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 21, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Fernandoinfante
- Tx
- 0x34b8a2c4…
This wallet's graded record
1/2-17.8 pts
expected 1.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -19 ptsYes price · entry 19¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |