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What this means. A wallet put $31.8k on No, at a price that gave it a 80% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$31.8k
BUY No @ 80¢ · 40,000 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took No (buy) for $31.8k at an average 80¢. At that price the market implied a 80% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $31.8k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 80¢ means
80%chance the market gave
−388American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 80¢
- Implied odds
- 79.5%
- Size
- $31.8k
- Placed
- Feb 23, 18:03 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x2efc349f…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.3k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $222.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |