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What this means. A wallet put $12.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 74% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.2k
BUY No @ 74¢ · 16,609 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Casdifer took No (buy) for $12.2k at an average 74¢. At that price the market implied a 74% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.2k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 74¢ means
74%chance the market gave
−280American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 74¢
- Implied odds
- 73.7%
- Size
- $12.2k
- Placed
- Feb 18, 16:38 EST
- Market close
- Feb 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Casdifer
- Tx
- 0x2dae97a4…
This wallet's graded record
3/5+4.4 pts
expected 2.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -74 ptsNo price · entry 74¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $26.9k | excluded |