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What this means. A wallet put $16.6k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+2.3 pts over 28 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.6k
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ · 16,636 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly took Yes (sell) for $16.6k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $16.6k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $16.6k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 02:57 EST
- Market close
- Feb 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly
- Tx
- 0xe92ee414…
This wallet's graded record
13/28+2.3 pts
expected 12.4 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ | $12.2k | excluded |