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What this means. A wallet put $110.1k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 31% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$110.1k
SELL Yes @ 69¢ · 159,552 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side3 fills in 1h3.8× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet 0xa078…419a took Yes (sell) for $110.1k at an average 69¢. At that price the market implied a 31% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $110.1k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
3 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 69¢
- Implied odds
- 31.0%
- As American odds
- +223 no vig
- Size
- $110.1k
- Placed
- Jun 26, 13:31 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 26, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0xa078…419a
- Tx
- 0x1c45b4a3…
This wallet's graded record
2/3+0.7 pts
expected 2.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -31 ptsYes price · entry 69¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.4¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.7¢ | $11.0k | excluded |