Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

elmcap2 bought Yes at 98.8¢. The price gave that side a 99% chance. 28,764 shares, Oct 28, 15:40 EDT.

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Plain exchange link. No referral code.

What this means. A wallet put $28.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →

[01] Bet

What happened

Wallet elmcap2 bought Yes for $28.4k at an average 98.8¢. At that price the market implied 99% for the side they took. Open: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More It still counts toward the score.

This wallet is 1 of 1 on graded bets, +3.1 pts versus the price. The sample is still short. Big is not the same as right.

[02] Flag

Why it was flagged

Low. Labels do not change the grade. Methodology

Size $28.4k+1

Near-certain price-2

Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Politics

What 99¢ means

99%chance the market gave

−8159American odds

$1.00paid per share if Yes wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

[04] Price

Price since the bet

Price since this bet

Since entry +0.6 pts

Yes price · entry 98.8¢ · now 99.4¢

Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.