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What this means. A wallet put $40.6k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$40.6k
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ · 40,616 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)2.6× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet TB14 took Yes (sell) for $40.6k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $40.6k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $40.6k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 14:30 EST
- Market close
- Feb 28, 12:30 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- TB14
- Tx
- 0x071205d3…
This wallet's graded record
0/5-44.9 pts
expected 2.2 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $83.8k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $69.2k 3.1× usual |
excluded |