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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -65.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-65.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$26.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$101.4k
Last 30 days −$33.7k · $1.56M volume · 2,446 trades · since Feb 19, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$66.8k
Open P&L · 34 positions
−$166.4k
Closed-position win rate
51%
320 closed
Wallet age · markets
247d
352 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -65.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 65¢ | $14.9k | missed |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xca4e92…