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What this means. A wallet put $14.3k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 30% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$14.3k
BUY Yes @ 30¢ · 47,816 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (buy) for $14.3k at an average 30¢. At that price the market implied a 30% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $14.3k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 30¢ means
30%chance the market gave
+233American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 30¢
- Implied odds
- 30.0%
- Size
- $14.3k
- Placed
- Apr 24, 07:12 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x0544c496…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $100.1k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.6k | excluded |