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What this means. A wallet put $31.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 54% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 17 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$31.4k
BUY Yes @ 54¢ · 58,293 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)2.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet mombil took Yes (buy) for $31.4k at an average 54¢. At that price the market implied a 54% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $31.4k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 54¢ means
54%chance the market gave
−117American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 54¢
- Implied odds
- 53.9%
- Size
- $31.4k
- Placed
- Apr 17, 08:25 EDT
- Market close
- May 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- mombil
- Tx
- 0x03b4e017…
This wallet's graded record
9/17+0.9 pts
expected 8.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $100.1k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.6k | excluded |